Data suggests that the creation and distribution of new tuberculosis (TB) vaccines could bring about health and economic benefits on par with some of the most influential health interventions in poorer countries in recent years.
Researchers found that after modelling the effects of vaccine introductions in low- and middle-income countries, they concluded that a new TB vaccine for adolescents and adults would be cost-effective in 73 of 105 (70%) of settings, including all those with a high TB burden, and could generate up to US$ 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050.
These advantages would be on par with those of the most significant health interventions in low- and middle-income countries in recent memory.
Dr. Allison Portnoy of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who led the study, said, “While challenges remain, successful development and introduction of a new TB vaccine has potential to accelerate elimination of a disease that represents one of the greatest health threats for poor households.”
To this day, tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the leading infectious causes of death worldwide. About 10.6 million people contracted tuberculosis in 2021, with 1.6 million succumbing to the disease. Drug-resistant tuberculosis is on the rise despite the fact that the disease can be cured with antibiotics. But millions of infected people are going untreated or dying because they haven’t been diagnosed.
When it comes to protecting infants and young children from the most dangerous forms of tuberculosis, the BCG vaccine is only moderately effective. However, adults and adolescents, who are responsible for almost 90% of all cases of transmission, are not protected nearly as well. Even though promising candidates exist, such as the M72/AS01E candidate vaccine, limited market incentives have delayed their development, making it more difficult to eradicate tuberculosis.
Statistical Examining of the Economy
Despite the fact that prior research has highlighted the monetary impact of tuberculosis and the potential impact new vaccines could have, the cost and cost-effectiveness of these vaccines may vary from country to country, and country-specific data is needed to help vaccine developers, manufacturers, and potential purchasers decide where to invest their money.
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To address this knowledge gap, Portnoy and colleagues estimated the future costs, savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines under a variety of assumptions about vaccine price and delivery strategies, calibrated with data from 105 LMICs.
According to a study published in PLOS Medicine, the substantial short-term costs of introducing a new TB vaccine would be offset by future cost-savings associated with caring for people with TB and their ability to contribute to the economy by staying healthy.
Significant advantages
At a minimum, the team estimated that a new adolescent/adult vaccine could generate between $283 billion and $474 billion in economic benefits by 2050, with the majority of these benefits accruing in the WHO African and South-East Asian regions, which have the highest TB burden.
Portnoy argued that the scope of these benefits would be comparable to that of HIV/AIDS universal testing and treatment programmes and other recent health interventions in low- and middle-income countries.
A new infant vaccine would be cost-effective in 56 of 105 countries (53 percent), including all of those with a high TB burden, assuming an efficacy of 80% efficacy at preventing disease. To the tune of $44.5-$100 billion, it would boost the economy.
An adolescent/adult vaccine “had greater, and more rapid, impact over the 2028-2050 time horizon compared to an infant vaccine,” Portnoy and her colleagues wrote. This is because “this vaccine is targeted to a population with the highest burden of TB,” and the time between vaccination and the vaccine’s effect on TB prevention is shorter with the adolescent/adult vaccine.
Portnoy remarked that “global and country stakeholders can use the results of these analyses to inform TB vaccine policy and introduction preparedness” and “decision-making” regarding the creation, distribution, and use of novel TB vaccines.
